Trade Archive
What follows below is an inventory of the rational speculations (a.k.a., trades) that were introduced at the conceptual level in the Philosophy page of this website.  As indicated, these were actual speculative opportunities.  The degree of detail varies, but each description is intended to serve as a summary of the reasoning rather than the full analysis.  The reader should note that all trades are offered for illustrative purposes only.  


All of these trades fall squarely within my definition of rational speculations, but view these and all other examples with the appropriate skepticism.  Most "worked" in the literal sense of being to some degree profitable.  But every analysis inevitably has its flaws, and in a number of cases I make an effort to deconstruct what I perceive to be the shortcomings of my own thesis. 


These are only a handful among hundreds, but I attempt to provide a broad spectrum of fundamentally different examples in order to highlight how diverse these opportunities can be.


Upon review the reader will note that the positions featured herein are intentionally out-of-date.  As stated on the home page and elsewhere, the purpose of this site is not to provide investment recommendations.  Even if I were inclined to do so, I have no incentive to distribute my best ideas, most of which entailed an enormous amount of work.



Our Descent Into Dell

Lexmark: Disappearing Ink... Profits

Tempting But Not Irresistible: Seeking Opportunity in the Kraft-Cadbury Takeover

Accenture-Arthur Anderson Trade

Honeywell-GE Dealbreak Trade

Ackerly-Clear Channel Trade

Compaq-ISS Trade

Compaq-Hewlett Lawsuit Trade

Livedoor-TSE Trade

Kimco-K-Mart Trade

Meristar-FelCor Dealbreak Trade

PetroGeo-Veritas Trade

PetroGeo-Veritas Deal Revision Trade

Providian Trade

Tyco-Radionics Trade